SAFAKNA TURKEY – published yesterday by Reuters. in the news As noted, the earthquake is expected to result in billions of Turkish lira in reconstruction costs in the Turkish economy and cause a 1-2 percentage point decline in growth this year.
While key figures show that electricity consumption across Turkey fell by 11% on the first day of the quake, the fact that search and rescue efforts were still focused on search and rescue and damage assessments started yesterday creates difficulties. in the overall impact assessment. .
Earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 on Monday morning and afternoon caused massive destruction in 10 provinces and northern Syria, home to about 13.4 million people.
What will be the consequences for the economy?
In total, 13.42 million people live in 10 provinces affected by the earthquake. Restoration of destroyed hospitals, roads and power lines damaged by a strong earthquake, short, medium and long-term housing needs will require spending tens of billions of liras.
Three economists cited by Reuters for their calculations calculated the impact of the earthquake on GDP as a loss of 0.6 to 2 points. Economists assume a scenario in which production is interrupted by 50% and this decrease is compensated for in 6-12 months. The official said growth this year could be 1-2 points below initial estimates due to the quake.
While the Central Bank of the Russian Federation postponed payments on rediscounted and early loans, the Ministry of Finance declared force majeure until the end of July and postponed tax payments in the region. In addition, 100 billion Turkish lira was transferred to the relevant state institutions in the first stage.
Since supply and demand in the foreign exchange market are determined by the measures taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, there have been no sharp movements in the market in recent months. The Turkish lira has depreciated 29.6% against the dollar over the past year, mostly in the first half of the year. dollar/TL this morning at 08.49 18.8290/18.8305 level. in the same time Euro/TL if dry 20.21 were on their level.
The BIST 100 index closed down 8.6% yesterday, while the banking index closed down 8.3%.
While the government is implementing low interest rates and unconventional economic policies focused on current account surpluses, the opposition is seeking to reverse the entire economic policy. For this reason, it is being monitored to see if the result, which will lead to a radical change in economic policy, will be in the elections, which are expected to take place on May 14th.
While polls show similar results, the impact of the earthquake and the state of emergency declared in 10 provinces on voter behavior and the election calendar will also be monitored.
Asian stocks rose after less than worried statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in favor of tightening heightened risk appetite and investors’ hopes that the Fed may soon ease monetary policy.
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