SHAFAQNA TURKEY – Gold prices started the day with gains both in Turkey and abroad. A gram of gold (spot) is trading at 1,661 lira, up 6 lira from the previous close. Gram reached its historical peak of 1664 lira in the first hours of the day. A quarter of the gold is valued at 2,714 lire. The quarter ended on Monday at 2,705 lira. Half of the gold sells for 5428 lira, up 0.31%. The gold of the Republic, the previous close of which was at 10,790 liras, finds buyers at 10,822 liras.
An ounce of gold is worth $1,959, up $4.
30% loss in TL
With tax hikes and depreciating TL, economists are expecting a monthly CPI increase of about 10 percent in July. Economists have also begun to revise their year-end CPI forecasts from 50 percent to 60 percent, and maybe higher.
TL has lost 30 percent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year, 20 percent in June. The course was at 26.35 at 08:50 this morning.
While the upward trend in inflation continues after the rise in prices and the depreciation of the Turkish lira, the magnitude of the increase in the CBR’s interest rate decision will be important to the markets.
The dollar exchange rate, which was at 18.73 at the beginning of the year, reached 19.60 Turkish lira before the elections on May 14 and 19.98 before the second round on May 28.
Rate hike expected by 500 basis points
According to a Reuters poll, the CBR is expected to continue the gradual rate hike it started last month, pushing the one-week repo rate to 20 percent with a 500 bp increase on Thursday. All 23 economists polled by Reuters expect a rate hike this week, with estimates ranging from 17% to 21.50%. The CBR cut its key rate by 15 percent, raising interest rates by 650 basis points in June, and said the tightening will continue until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.
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