Expectations of a recession in the global market are growing

SHAFAQNA TURKEY- According to data released yesterday in the US, the number of open jobs in JOLTS decreased by 632 thousand in February compared to the previous month and fell to 9 million 931 thousand. The number of vacancies, which fell short of expectations, fell below 10 million for the first time since May 2021. Factory orders in the country also fell 0.7% in February, falling short of market expectations.

On the other hand, bank shares fell more than 1 percent after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the US banking crisis is not over yet and its effects will be felt in the coming years.

Analysts noted that ADP’s US Private Employment data due today and Friday’s nonfarm payroll data are expected to shed more light on the market, adding that the data could increase asset price volatility. .

Yesterday, following labor market signals and Dimon’s announcement, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) estimate of a 25 basis point rate hike next month in money market pricing fell from 58 percent to 42 percent.

US two-year bond yields fell about 14 basis points.

While expectations that the Fed may stop raising interest rates led to an increase in the bond buying rate in the bond markets, the yield on 2-year US bonds yesterday fell by about 14 basis points to 3.83 percent and was at 3. 87 percent. in a new day balanced.

In the above scenario, precious metals were also actively buying, with the price of an ounce of gold up 1.81 percent and an ounce of silver up 4.2 percent, hitting $2020 and $25 yesterday, respectively.

Against the background of these events in the New York stock market, the S&P 500 lost 0.58% yesterday, the Dow Jones – 0.59%, and the Nasdaq – 0.52%. Futures contracts for indices in the US started the new day in different directions.

While European stock markets showed multidirectional dynamics yesterday, inflationary pressure in the region continues to slow down.

According to data released yesterday, producer price index (PPI) in the eurozone remained below expectations, having increased by 13.2% in February. According to the survey of expectations published by the European Central Bank (ECB), inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell from 4.9 percent to 4.6 percent in February.

Most ECB officials continue to stress that the bank is nearing completion of its rate hike. Accordingly, while the ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points with a 90 percent chance at the next meeting, it is clear that the uncertainty in the forecasts for the post-May period has increased.

Due to these developments yesterday, the DAX 40 rose 0.14% in Germany, while the FTSE 100 in England shed 0.50% and the MIB 30 in Italy shed 0.56%. In France, the CAC 40 index has not changed. Futures contracts for indices in Europe started the new day in different directions.

While the mixed rate is also visible in the Asian stock markets, there are no transactions in the stock markets of China and Hong Kong today due to the holiday.

As regional central banks continue to announce their policy decisions, New Zealand’s central bank raised its key rate by 50 basis points to 5.25 percent today against market expectations of 25 basis points.

On the other hand, according to macroeconomic data released in Japan, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services sector rose to 55.2, while the composite PMI rose to 52.9.

While Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.6% by the close of trading, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.5%.

Domestically, the BIST 100 index on the Borsa Istanbul exchange, which yesterday followed the course of active purchases, ended the day at 4,984.11 points, up 2.99% from the previous close.

USD/TL traded at 19.2410 at the interbank market open today after closing at 19.2246 up 0.1 percent yesterday.

Analysts said they would watch German manufacturing orders, German services and composite PMI, and US ADP private sector employment data today, noting that technically the 5,000 and 5,150 levels in the BIST 100 index are in a resistance position. and 4.900 and 4.850 points are in the support position.