Forecast for an 18 percent decline in oil prices

SHAFAQNA TURKEY. The US is making one statement after another about oil prices, which are closely linked to the fuel markets. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Goldman Sachs have released their oil forecasts for 2023. Prices are expected to fall 18 percent in 2023 to $83.10 a barrel, according to the EIA. However, an American investment bank predicts that Brent crude will rise to $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Oil prices, which hit a record high of $140 last year, are down 7 percent in the first week of the new year. While fluctuations in oil prices have continued this year, expectations for 2023 and 2024 have become clear. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Goldman Sachs released their oil price forecasts one after the other.


The Energy Information Administration (EIA), affiliated with the US Department of Energy, predicts that global demand for oil will continue to rise. The forecast for world oil production for 2023 is 101.10 million barrels per day.

He predicted that oil demand in 2024 will increase by 1.72 million barrels per day compared to 2023 and reach 102.20 million barrels per day. The EIA also predicts that global oil supplies will reach 102.83 million bpd in 2024, up from 100 million bpd in 2022.


Estimating that the average price of Brent oil will be $83.10 per barrel in 2023, down 18 percent from 2022, the EIA said it expects the average price to drop to $78 per barrel in 2024. The expected average Brent oil price for 2023 was previously announced at $92.36 per barrel. While the expected average price of West Texas oil in 2023 has been reduced from $86.36 per barrel to $77.18 per barrel, the average price in 2024 was estimated at $71.57 per barrel.

The EIA has raised its 2023 U.S. crude oil production forecast from 12.34 million bpd to 12.41 million bpd and forecasts production of 12.81 million bpd in 2024.


On the other hand, another organization that made oil forecasts was the American investment bank Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs said OPEC’s growing ability to raise prices without hurting demand limits downside risks to its 2023 oil price forecasts.

Forecasting a 2.7 million bpd increase in global oil demand in 2023 and a supply shortage in the market in the second half of 2023, Goldman Sachs predicted that the price of Brent crude would rise to $105. / barrel in the fourth quarter.

“The fact that supply is lagging behind demand will allow OPEC to start rolling back production cuts made in October 2022 in the second half of 2023,” Goldman Sachs said in a Jan. 9 report.


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