Global markets follow positive dynamics

SHAFAQNA TURKEY – After data indicating that the slowdown in US inflation eased in January, retail sales rose 3 percent m/m in January, better than expected.


After the release of data pointing to a resilient economy that could provide the US Federal Reserve (Fed) with room to raise interest rates, although the initial reaction in the stock markets was downward, the indices began to rise with retaliatory buying, which approached the close.

As a result of these events, the Dow Jones added 0.11%, the S&P 500 added 0.28% and the Nasdaq added 0.92% in the New York stock market yesterday.

The dollar index is at 103.7 today after closing at 103.9, up 0.7 percent yesterday. The US 10-year yield also stabilized at 3.80% after being tested at 3.82%. Futures contracts for US indices started a new day with buyers.

According to data released yesterday by the European side, annual inflation in the UK continued to slow down for the third month in a row and in January amounted to 10.1 percent. While industrial production in the Eurozone in December fell by 1.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y, the foreign trade deficit was better than expected and amounted to 8.8 billion euros.


After the release of inflation data, which removed fears that the Bank of England may raise interest rates above expectations, yesterday the FTSE 100 index in the UK for the first time in its history exceeded 8,000 points. Due to these developments, the DAX 40 rose 0.82% in Germany, the FTSE 100 rose 0.55% in the UK and the CAC 40 rose 1.21% in France. While the euro/dollar parity, which fell to 1.0660 yesterday, is just above 1.07 today, index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a new buyer.

On the Asian side, following China’s lifting of stringent COVID-19 measures, increased demand for loans and increased air travel have led to increased optimism for the economy. From the Japanese side, the news flow about Kazuo Ueda, who was nominated for the post of head of the country’s central bank, remains in the spotlight. Although Ueda is expected to give a speech in the lower house of parliament on February 24, the presidential candidate’s signals on monetary policy are critical.

On the other hand, in January, exports and imports increased by 3.5 percent, while imports increased by 17.8 percent year on year in January, while the foreign trade deficit hit a record 3.5 trillion yen. On the other hand, orders for engineering in the country fell by 6.6% in December, despite expectations of growth.

These developments saw Asian equity markets begin the day positively as the Shanghai Composite Index in China rose 0.1 percent, the Nikkei 225 Index in Japan rose 0.8 percent and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased. by 1.6 percent.


The BIST 100 index closed the day at 4,950.47, up 9.88 percent, thanks to measures taken, especially support for buybacks on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, which reopened for trading yesterday after a week-long hiatus. USD/TL traded at 18.8540 at the interbank market open after closing at 18.8503, up 0.06 percent from yesterday’s previous close.

On the other hand, the US-traded iShares MSCI Turkey ETF added more than 9 percent yesterday after gaining 8 percent the day before.

Analysts said that expectations and comments about the central bank’s monetary policy are changing depending on the announced data, and said that fluctuations in the global stock markets may remain on the agenda for some time.

While expressing that interest in transmission line assets is expected to continue due to the action taken in the country, analysts noted that the flow of news about earthquakes in Kahramanmaras will continue to be monitored.

Analysts said the nation’s weekly monetary and banking statistics, producer price index (PPI), new home construction and US building permits are high on today’s data agenda, he said.

The following data should be monitored in the markets today:

10.00 Turkey, external credit debt of the private sector in December

14.30 Turkey, weekly statistics of money and banks

14.30 Turkey, January, international reserves and liquidity in foreign currency

14.30 Turkey, house price index for December

16.30 USA, January, building permit

16:30 USA, start of housing construction in January

16:30 USA, weekly jobless claims

16.30 USA, February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

16:30 USA January PPI


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