November inflation forecast released

SAFAKNA TURKEY – The WPI-CPI inflation figures announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) remain on the agenda. The question is when and to what extent inflation data will be released, which also have a significant impact on pensioners and civil servants. Here is TURKSTAT inflation data for November 2022…

WHEN WILL THE NOVEMBER INFLATION RATE BE ANNOUNCED?

The Turkish Statistical Institute announces the previous month’s data at the beginning of each month. Therefore, the November inflation is expected to be announced on Monday, December 5, 2022 at 10:00 am.

After the announcement of the November inflation, the rate of rent growth will also become clear. The inflation data will also show the latest chart through December for pensioners and civil servants.

WHAT ARE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FOR NOVEMBER?

Annual inflation expectations

While participants’ current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectations stood at 67.78 percent in the previous survey period, this

During the study period, it amounted to 68.06 percent. While the expectation for the 12-month CPI was 37.34 percent in the previous study period,

for this period of the survey, it amounted to 37.47 percent. The expected CPI after 24 months was 21.17% and 20.76%, respectively, during the same study periods.

Inflation expectations in 12 months

During the survey period in November 2022, when participants’ probability estimates for the next 12 months are estimated, the average CPI is in the range of 27.00-33.99% with a probability of 10.24% and 34.00-40.99% with a probability of 58 .49%. It is predicted that there will be an increase in the range of 41.00-47.99 percent with a probability of 18.31 percent.

According to an assessment made on the basis of point estimates in the same survey period, 13.89% of participants’ expectations were in the range of 27.00 – 33.99%, 61.11% were in the range of 34.00 – 40.99%, 11 percent. It is observed that the expectations of 11 of them are in the range of 41.00 – 47.99 percent.

Inflation expectations in 24 months

During the November 2022 survey period, when participants’ probability estimates for the next 24 months are estimated, the CPI

On average, it is predicted to increase in the range of 15.00 – 18.99 percent with a probability of 28.63 percent, in the range of 19.00 – 22.99 percent with a probability of 38.30 percent and in the range of 23.00 – 26.99 percent from with a probability of 38.30 percent. 15.76 percent chance.

According to an estimate made on the basis of point estimates in the same survey period when CPI inflation expectations are estimated in 24 months, 22.58 percent of participants’ expectations are in the range of 15.00-18.99 percent, 45.16 percent of their expectations are in range of 19.00-22 percent, it is observed that expectations of 16.13 percent are in the range of 23.00-26.99 percent.

Interest rate expectations

While the current month-end overnight interest rate expectation by BIST repo and reverse repo market participants was 11.25 percent in the previous study period, it became 9.47 percent in this study period. While the expected weekly CBR repo rate at the end of the current month was 11.22 percent in the previous study period, it was realized at 9.00 percent in this study period.