SHAFAKNA TURKEY. While global stock markets were positive and worries about inflation and recession faded into the background after yesterday’s better-than-expected US data, domestic markets focused on the central bank’s interest rate decision. Republic of Turkey (CBRT).
According to data released yesterday in the US, the consumer confidence index in the country reached its highest level in 8 months – 108.3 in December. During this period, inflation expectations fell to 6.7 percent, the lowest level since September 2021, while the country’s existing home sales continued to decline until November 10, under the influence of high home loan rates.
Better-than-expected financial results for Nike and FedEx also buoyed markets after macroeconomic data showed an optimistic picture for consumers.
Due to these developments yesterday, the New York stock market saw a positive trend. The Dow Jones added 1.60%, the S&P 500 added 1.49% and the Nasdaq added 1.54%. The US 10-year yield fell to 3.65% after hitting its highest level in about a month at 3.72%. While the dollar index, which closed at 104.2 yesterday, up 0.2 percent, slipped to 103.9 today, US index futures started a new day with buyers.
On the European side, yesterday the focus was on Germany’s decision to provide 49 billion euros of state support to companies hit by the energy crisis and 28 billion euros for investments in renewable energy. After the development, which was recorded as the largest bailout package in German history, European stock markets experienced an average increase of 1.8 times. The FTSE 100 Index added 1.72% in the UK, the DAX 40 Index added 1.54% in Germany and the CAC 40 Index added 2.01% in France. While the euro/dollar parity rose 03 percent to 1.0650, index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a new buyer.
In Asia, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) widened its long-term bond rate range, the country’s 10-year bond yield rose and stabilized at 0.44 percent. On the other hand, the government’s increase in its growth forecast for the next fiscal year has been positive for risk appetite, while the economic authorities and the Chinese government’s growth moves have prompted buying led by housing stocks. As a result of the events, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.5 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.1 percent, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 2.5 percent.
Continuing the upward trend in the domestic market yesterday, the BIST 100 reached its all-time high of 5,491.10 points and improved its closing record by 0.19 percent to 5,429.13 points. On the other hand, the dollar/Turkish lira traded at 18.6680 today in the interbank market after closing at 18.6691, up 0.07 percent from the previous close.
Analysts say that while the dilemma of inflation and recession continued to put pressure on global stock markets, the recovery trend in stock markets has come to the fore due to the presence of micro-sustainable companies and retaliatory buying.
Emphasizing that bond interest rates should be closely monitored, he noted that market volatility may persist due to the actions of investors who want to close their positions before the Christmas holidays.
Analysts said that today the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the interest rate in the country and the final data on growth, which will be announced abroad in the US and England, is expected today, the BIST 100 index is technically at 5.500 as resistance and 5.350 points as support.
All economists surveyed by AA Finans expect the CBR to keep the key rate unchanged. While the bank cut its key rate to 9 percent, a 150 basis point cut last month, the text of the decision indicated that it had decided to complete a cycle of interest rate cuts that began in August.
The following data should be monitored in the markets today:
10.00 Great Britain, the final rise of the 3rd quarter
14:00 Turkey, the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the interest rate
14.30 Turkey, weekly statistics of money and banks
16.30 USA, final rise of the 3rd quarter
16.30 Personal consumption expenditures in the 3rd quarter
16:30 USA, weekly jobless claims
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