SHAFAQNA TURKEY – The central bank raised interest rates for the first time in 27 months last month. At the first meeting, under the leadership of the Chairman of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBTR), Hafize Gaye Erkan, a message was given on the “gradual increase”. We are looking forward to the next step that the bank, which announced at its July meeting that it is fighting inflation, will take.
According to the calendar of meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the decision on the interest rate for July will be announced today at 14:00.
What are the expectations of economists?
Foreign economists expect the CBR to raise the discount rate by 500 basis points at the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.
Societe Generale’s chief strategist for the Middle East, Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) Marek Drimal told Anadolu (AA) that the CBRT will raise the discount rate to 20 percent with an increase of 500 basis points.
Expressing that the CBR could raise interest rates, which would also contain signs of monetary policy, Drymal said that the policy rate could reach the 20 percent threshold.
Saying that the Bank’s decision would be in line with a “gradual” return to orthodox monetary policy, Drymal noted that the CBR’s decision would also be compatible with the challenges identified at the June meeting and its strategy to tackle particularly difficult core inflation.
“The discount rate may rise to 25 percent in August”
Marek Drymal said: “The recent depreciation of the Turkish lira is expected to increase price pressures in the economy and slow down the disinflationary process. The discount rate could rise to 25 percent at the August meeting.” said.
Tata Ghose, senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank, also predicted that the discount rate would be increased by 500 basis points.
Economists surveyed by AA Finans regarding the CBR’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting expect the weekly repo auction rate (guidance rate) to be increased by 500 basis points to 20.00 percent.
At a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee last month, the discount rate was increased by 650 basis points from 8.50 to 15 percent.
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