SAFAKNA TURKEY – Borsa İstanbul was closed for 5 trading days after the Kahramanmaras earthquake. BIST, which started trading again last week, experienced a rapid gain on the first day and the stock closed with a premium of about 10 percent. BIST, strengthened by decisions made by the Capital Markets Board and Borsa Istanbul management, failed to capture the permanency of growth.
After being closed for 5 days, the Istanbul Stock Exchange was unable to transfer the momentum of the first day of opening to other days and continued to trade at levels close to horizontal.
In addition to the situation in domestic markets, signals from US and European central banks in foreign markets that their determination to raise interest rates remains, and reports that interest rate hikes will continue until the fight against inflation is won. impact on the markets.
While BIST remained unchanged in the shadow of these announcements, it reversed the gold selling trend that followed the uptrend in anticipation of declining inflation and lower interest rates by central banks.
The experts explained that the increase in BIST occurred as a result of the measures taken and that the increase can continue as long as 5000 points remain. While stating that private pension funds provide a large amount of access to BIST, the experts noted that high interest rates abroad reduce the interest of foreigners in BIST.
Here is an expert assessment of Borsa İstanbul and gold
“THE EFFECT OF THE MEASURES WILL BE REDUCED EVERY DAY”
Sukru Cem Kaya, Domestic Market Director, Ata Investment
Ata Investment director of domestic markets, Şükrü Cem Kaya, who attributed the rapid growth of the Istanbul stock exchange to the measures taken, said that the impact of these measures will decrease day by day.
The Kaya market estimate is as follows:
The measures, taken after the sharp fluctuations after the earthquake, have caused serious demand on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Thus, prices were affected by measures to protect investors from short-term sharp downward fluctuations. Both the buyouts of companies and the increase in the share of the state contribution to PPP were effective in this process. However, since these measures are not sustainable, their impact will decrease day by day.
FOREIGNERS ON THE SIDE OF SALE
Level 5100 is technically important for the Istanbul Exchange. Crossing this level will be a serious signal to continue the upward movement. Below the level of 4900 can be considered as support. Below this level, more selling pressure can be expected. The exchange rate has long been at a historical low below 30 percent. Foreign investors continue to see upside attacks as selling opportunities. The expectation that interest rates abroad will remain high and that interest rates will continue is very effective in this strategy.
THE DECISION OF THE CB WILL NOT BE VALID
The CBR’s interest rate decision this week is that policy rates will continue to fall. However, the discount rate has completely lost its influence on the markets in the current inflationary environment. Therefore, whatever the decision, it will not have an impact on the markets.
THERE WERE LIMITED LIFTS AFTER THE 1999 EARTHQUAKE
Jeyhun Yavash / Dynamic Securities Investment Research Specialist
I disagree with the comments that the stock market’s rise did not provide permanence. If we study the movements of the market during the 1999 earthquake, we can see that there was also a limited uptrend on that day.
BES FUNDS INTRODUCED, SHARE REBUY IS POSITIVE
It can be said that the inflows to the BES funds are carried out at a high pace. In general, we estimate the effect of the purchase of shares as marginally positive. We think that these purchases are usually spread over a large period of time in terms of their size.
5000 POINTS IMPORTANT IN BIST
If we keep more than 5000 pips for BIST in the short term, we will target the 5200 and 5400 resistances respectively. 4800 is in an important support position. We maintain our medium term target of 8000 points.
FOREIGN SALES ARE IMPLEMENTED
When we look at securities statistics, foreign investors bought $131 million worth of shares in the week of Feb. 10 and sold $8 million worth of GDDS. In the first six weeks of the year, the stock market experienced $374 million in outflows and $43 million inflows into the bond market. When we analyze this on a 52-week basis, capital outflow was $6.27 billion, of which $3.9 billion came from stock sales and $2.3 billion from bond sales. Last week, capital outflow was at $6.40 billion.
CRITICAL RESISTANCE FOR GOLD
We followed a pullback to the $1820 levels, which are influenced by inflation and interest rates. We see gold, which spent Friday buying, holding on to the $1829 support. We are of the opinion that the upward movement will start again if a fixation above $1854 is achieved. With possible rollbacks, the level of 1805 is an important support.
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