SAFAKNA TURKEY – The stock market has been rising for several months now.
One day it falls for various reasons, and the next it records a record increase.
World stock markets are falling by 3 percent, our stock market, on the contrary, is growing by 7 percent that day.
Banks that buy 8-10% interest rate government bonds by their ears and suffer big losses in the event of a possible interest rate hike still find buyers with a 200% premium price because they are cheap in dollar terms.
Even state-owned banks, which are controlled by the government, are going through the roof.
So why is the stock market rising?
The reasons for the growth of the stock market are:
It’s very cheap per $1.
Well, your country does not have a healthy stock market, you are the one who counts in dollars. This is all irrationally uneconomical. How logical is it to say that shares are cheap in dollar terms on the stock market where you buy and sell in Turkish Lira and you trade completely locally.
An internal investor who bought shares. On the institutional side, there are mutual funds and private pension funds. In other words, apart from them, there is not a single lot of foreign purchases. In your opinion, how much does it make sense to buy an expensive or even one hundred percent expensive share in dollar terms?
When companies whose profits have increased by 200 percent today switch to accounting for inflation, it will be seen that there is no real profit. Everyone knows this. So what kind of wife are you buying?
This is the most effective growth expectation in the stock market. After the elections, a foreigner will come to Turkey and buy 300% or even 500% premium shares from us.
Foreign idiot, we are very smart. Those who manage trillions of dollars of funds “Elections in Turkey, let’s go buy shares” will they say that? He will come and buy the shares of a Turkish company, regardless of criteria such as the origin of the shares, profitability, etc. (!)
As of Friday, the stock market again saw a decrease in the share of foreign capital. Foreigners have been trading for the last 2 years. Last year it was sold with bated breath.
As of December 16, 2022, the foreign exchange rate fell to 29.60. They even sold on the day the stock market broke a record. They were selling 0.24% daily, 1.23% monthly and 30.45% annual sales.
In other words, to think that they will go back to the stock market after the election and take it off the 200 percent markup without looking back is nothing short of mental eclipse.
3-Interests are low, the exchange rate is not growing, the only remedy is the stock market!
Over the past three months, more than 600,000 small investors have entered the stock market. Unable to make money in dollars, the investor turns a blind eye and dives into the stock market because the interest rate is so much lower than inflation. He buys shares without saying that cheap means expensive. I have seen this movie in the past. Hundreds of thousands of investors have repented in the stock market.
Government’s hand in the stock market!
Of course, the country’s stock market is very good. But if healthy. The government is paving the way for citizens to enter the stock market so that they do not switch to the dollar. When applying the interest rate policy, the stock market is shown as the only solution or the only solution.
This is extremely wrong and the end will be painful.
As I said, there is a mental blackout and everyone is going to the stock market.
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