SAFAKNA TURKEY – The collapse that began with talk of $100,000 in bitcoin that tested the $69,000 levels last November has extended to $15,500. In other words, it’s a 77.5 percent loss from the peak. This storm in Bitcoin, the flagship of crypto, has reverberated like a flood on altcoins. Many coins have fallen 95-99% below their all-time highs. In other words, a person who saw a year ago that he had $ 1,000 in crypto coins on his account today writes an amount like $ 10-50 on his screen.
The news quoted by Ufuk Korkan from My Economy, It includes predictions on how the coins will follow in the upcoming period. Accordingly, the main driver of the trend was the increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to curb high inflation and curb monetary expansion during this period. And what about what happens inside the crypto market itself? One of the “Top 10” coins, Luna’s decline from $200 to levels with lots of zero cents, followed by a flood of funds like Celsius, dealt a severe blow to crypto assets.
As if that wasn’t enough, the “what the hell” bankruptcy of FTX, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, has dealt the final blow. The collapse of FTX was reminiscent of the bankruptcy of one of the largest investment banks, Lehman Brothers, during the 2008 global economic crisis. Called “too big to fail”, Lehman also damaged the system’s credibility, as did FTX.
Recently, negative news about Binance, the largest of the crypto exchanges, began to appear. How true these statements are and where they will go, time will tell. But market players rate this possibility as low.
The fact that last week’s U.S. inflation data came in below expectations pushed Bitcoin above the resistance at $17,500. Then the hawkish stance and rhetoric of the Fed over the interest rate decision held back the rise of cryptocurrencies.
However, it looks like Bitcoin has managed to hold above $17,500 so far. Therefore, while maintaining the current conditions in the coming period, that is, in the absence of an unexpected negative development, the upward movement of the cryptocurrency may continue. The main factor supporting this forecast is that interest rate cuts have begun to be discussed in the US, especially in the second half of 2023.
Bitcoin attempted to rise above the uptrend started in January 2019, testing the $18K level on the weekly chart. However, for this rise to make sense, the weekly close must be completed above the $17,650 level this week. If this happens, the pair will again be above the trend. In such a scenario, $20,400 and $21,500 could be targeted, albeit gradually, with $18,143 as an intermediate resistance point.
Otherwise, staying below $17,650 will keep the risk of seeing $16,900 and $15,800 at parity on the weekly support chart. Although the indicators are yet to be confirmed, the fact that they are in the process of forming positive signals increases the likelihood of possible upward movements, albeit slightly. However, it is also clear that the volume of trading does not yet support a sharp movement.
The FTX stock market crash reminded me of the Madoff incident in 2008. Bernie Madoff, a former stockbroker and investment advisor, made a full $65 billion from the pyramid scheme he founded. “Political chaining” is a scam method where people included in the system are paid for their own investment or money from downstream participants. When many investors want to withdraw their money at the same time, the system fails and leaves many victims in its wake.
Today, crypto exchanges, where there is no control and the state of their financial structures is unknown, also raise questions in the minds. Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, recently made a statement saying that “regulation is needed even if the crypto crisis passes.” Despite the fact that statements about the regulation were heard for a long time, it was never implemented. However, in general, regulation that covers all participants in the crypto market is actually the best option for investors.
Ethereum managed to stay above the uptrend that started on March 9, 2020 on the weekly chart. However, the pressure of the downtrend that began in the week of November 8, 2021 is still being felt. For this reason, in order to speak of an upward movement in a given parity, this trend line must necessarily be exceeded. Next week, the resistance point of this trend coincides with the $1,376 level. In addition, the $1,350 level, which acts as resistance in the recent uptrend, is also extremely important in terms of a horizontal resistance point. For possible pullbacks, the main trend support point this week is at $1,194. Although the trading volume is still not supportive, the indicators are mostly positive.
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